Thailand is currently in an “State of emergency” because of widespread civil insurrection against the government. Their several day protest has already succeeded in closing airports, train stations, and they are threatening to turn off the water supply as well as electricity supply.
No one is sure who will win the standoff. Of course everyone is thinking about what will happen when push comes to shove. We have the possibility of the police and military conflicting with the protesters as well as a support group from northern Thailand who are pro-government conflicting with the protesters. So far there has been 32 injuries and one death.
On one hand I would like to protesters to win the battle so that I could continue to believe in people power. But I don’t know enough details about who is behind the scenes orchestrating the protesters. Why would you try to fight the government if you could brainwash a bunch of people into fighting them for you. What is being advertised to us as a nonviolent civil insurrection could be just a façade.
On the other hand I would like the government to win and have things go back to normal. Although “normal” and “Thailand” are two words that don’t often occur in the same sentence.
One factor that makes going back to normal less likely it is that the military and police did not intervene strong and fast on the first day. If this happened in China they would be putting the finishing touches on the mass graves and throwing the last vestiges of evidence that it ever happened into the memory hole.
So if the government does not have the support of the military and police the government would likely have the key players of the police and military fired as soon as the crisis was averted. The key players of these institutions likely understand this so might naturally gravitate towards supporting the protesters.
Another scenario is the government did not order the police and military to come down fast and dangerous on the people and instead chose a nonviolent “wait them out” strategy. In this scenario they gain sympathy for taking a nonviolent approach ( although it was not on the news until violence erupted ) however they lose face by appearing vulnerable and appeasing.
All of this was happening for about four or five days before CNN, BBC, and Al Jazeera gave it more than a brief appearance on the tickertape. The protesters had already taken control of all of the television stations in Thailand, shut down airports and train stations, and stop government from functioning for four days. To be fair there were some other more important news stories happening like the tropical storm, Republican national convention, and McCain’s running mate’s 17-year-old daughter pregnancy announcement. The mainstream media continues to demonize Russia and ignore the fact that they were the initial aggressor.
I found this website today; its claim to fame is simply “big pictures.” http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/